Download 20% Chance of Rain: Exploring the Concept of Risk by Richard B. Jones PDF

By Richard B. Jones

ISBN-10: 0470592419

ISBN-13: 9780470592410

Learn how to observe the basic facets of risk—regardless of the situation

We'd all prefer to do away with probability from our decision-making, yet regrettably this objective is unachievable. No unmarried across-the-board answer holds the ability to take on all the surprises existence throws at us. up to we attempt to prevent them, negative results will unavoidably ensue. . . occasionally. but there are belongings you can do to assist stack the deck on your desire. You don't must be a statistician or mathematician to develop into knowledgeable in coping with the future's uncertainty. 20% likelihood of Rain allows the reader to shape a strong realizing of threat that may be utilized to decision-making by:

  • Teaching the elemental techniques of possibility throughout the huge use of functional occasions to aid the reader follow what's realized to a large choice of situations
  • Providing genuine illustrations of probability research, chance review, and threat administration, complementing the rigorous arithmetic taught in such a lot probability courses
  • Communicating complicated probability ideas in an easy, transparent, and fascinating demeanour utilizing real-life examples and problems
  • Including case stories, from NASA and different industries, offering the root for extra discussions and permitting the reader to determine genuine functions of risk-based decision-making
  • From members to companies to executive firms, danger is the typical denominator. winning suggestions for dealing with the future's uncertainty or danger could seem easy and easy at the floor, but they are often super complicated and refined. knowing the easiest how you can hire those multi-faceted strategies is necessary within the face of the ups and downs that loom in the back of each selection we make. lifestyles is really a sequence of selections and 20% likelihood of Rain can help deal with the future's uncertainty in today's dynamic, advanced, and shrinking world.

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    Extra resources for 20% Chance of Rain: Exploring the Concept of Risk

    Sample text

    Because a particular kind of problem has always been addressed in a certain w a y in the past, this comes to be seen as the correct w a y to continue to address it. But n o w the environment may have changed, new tools and knowledge may be available, and community and client needs may be quite different. If the problem-solving group is part of a hierarch3~ then authorization of the chosen strategy may have to be given b y a higher authority. This is likely to be the case in security organizations.

    STEP 10. What will be an effective strategy? The problem solver or problem-solving group should now examine and evaluate all this information and, after discussions, should arrive at a strategy for action. Proposals for action must contribute both to the solution of the problem and to the prevention of its recurrence. The latter requires actions directed at problem or crime prevention. This sociotechnical approach is useful in that it identifies important variables that are likely to be relevant to most problem-solving situations.

    Stafford Beer tells us that handling complexity is one of the major problems of our age. He also argues that good decision making is not a linear process but relies heavily on a great deal of feedback. And he suggests that, given this uncertain environment, the best decision processes will be similar to conversations. There will be many contributors to these and each will challenge the others. 5 A great deal of group problem solving will go through the following stages, although this will not usually be a linear process but one that operates in loops, each loop affected by feedback from one or more of the others.

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