By Alvin J. Harman
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I . . . . . , . . . . . i . . . . . i . . . . . i . . . . . i . . . . . i . . . . . i . . . . . V --IndustriQI Bond RQte I-- Cornmercial Paper Rote I- Spread I ol /" _ - - / "1\1\\1\\//"1 I 1900 1910 1920 \ 1930 1940 1950 "41 1980 1970 DaLe Fig. 6. Private interest rates and spread. / . I 1980 1990 2000 53 Ch. " Business Cycle Fluctuations in US Macroeconomic Time Series 10 YearT-Bond RoleI 3 Moi,th Bi,, R0t0 / ! \\ -I-I 1950 i i , I r , , 1986 i I / /\ , 1960 , r i P i 1969 r i , I , 1970 , , , \ I , , 1979 A / , , I i \/ r , 1980 , I , 1985 , , i \.
Scatterplot of the unemployment and inflation rates in levels. Open circles, 1953-1970; triangles, 1971-1983; solid circles, 1984-1996. 2. Seatterplot of cyclical components of the unemployment and inflation rates. Open circles, 1953 1970; triangles, 1971-1983; solid circles, 1984-1996. a negative relation in the 1950s and 1960s, but this relation shifted out dramatically in the 1970s, and shifted back somewhat during the 1980s. 3 in the 1984-1996 sub-period. This suggests that inflation and the unemployment rate may be negatively related over suitably short horizons, but that this relationship is obscured by their longer-run movements.
I _~ \/ \ \ /'\ \// \\ ~, ~/\ - - /\ Consurnption/GNP -- \ / ~ / \ / \ \ / / - " \ \ ' Inveslmenl/CNP \ G0vef~men/GNP i i i i 1950 i 1955 i i i .... i i i i i 1960 ~ i i 1905 i i i \ i i i 1070 i i i i975 i i r i 19110 i i r i 1 i i i 1985 i i 1990 i i i r i 1995 i i i i 2000 I)Gte Fig. 9. Balanced growth ratios (logs). Consistent w i t h the h i g h cyclical volatility o f total investment in Table 2, the log investment/output ratio has b e e n m u c h m o r e volatile than the log c o n s u m p t i o n / o u t p u t ratio.